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market-sizing

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Market Sizing (TAM / SAM / SOM)

Produce a defensible TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing model with labeled assumptions, cited sources, and a convergence check between top-down and bottom-up methodologies.

When this skill applies

  • User asks to "size the market," "calculate TAM/SAM/SOM," or "estimate the addressable opportunity"
  • User needs market context for a SOW, pitch deck, executive briefing, or strategy document
  • User wants to validate whether a new platform, vertical, or geography is worth pursuing

Skip for: industry structure analysis → five-forces-analysis; competitor footprint → competitor-teardown.

Inputs

Parameter Required Default
market-or-vertical Yes —
--client No —
--geo No global
--segment No —
--output No model

Workflow

Step 1 — Define the market

State explicitly:

  • What product/service is being sized (be specific — "digital experience platform implementation services" not "consulting")
  • Who is the buyer (IT decision-maker, CMO, procurement — affects SOM estimation)
  • Geography and currency (all figures in stated currency and year)
  • Reference year for the model (use the current year as the base)

Confirm before proceeding. A mis-scoped market produces a misleading model.

Step 2 — TAM: Total Addressable Market

TAM = the revenue opportunity if you captured 100% of the defined market with zero friction.

Top-down method:

  1. Find at least two analyst or industry sources for the total market size in the defined geography and segment (Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Statista, IBISWorld, Grand View Research, Mordor Intelligence).
  2. Record: source name, publication date, market definition used, CAGR if stated.
  3. If sources disagree by >20%, use the midpoint and flag the range as a caveat.
  4. Project forward to the current year using the stated CAGR if the source date is >12 months old. Label as a projection, not a fact.

Bottom-up method:

  1. Estimate the total number of potential buyer organizations in the defined geography and segment (use LinkedIn Company Search, Dun & Bradstreet firmographic estimates, or industry association membership figures as proxies — label the source).
  2. Estimate average annual spend per buyer (use analyst benchmarks, publicly available case study pricing, or RFP average values if known internally — label each assumption).
  3. TAM (bottom-up) = total buyer count × average annual spend.

Convergence check:

Method TAM estimate Variance from other method
Top-down [$ or currency] —
Bottom-up [$ or currency] [%]

If variance > 30%, investigate the cause (different market definitions, different geographies, different buyer segments) and resolve or flag explicitly.

Step 3 — SAM: Serviceable Available Market

SAM = the subset of TAM that RBA (or the client) can realistically serve given current capabilities, geography, and go-to-market reach.

Apply the following filters to TAM. For each filter, document the reduction percentage and its basis:

Filter Reduction Basis
Geography (if TAM is global) –[X]% [e.g., "NA represents ~35% of global DXP spend — Gartner 2025"]
Segment (e.g., enterprise only) –[X]% [e.g., "Enterprise (>1000 employees) accounts for ~60% of segment — IDC 2024"]
Platform scope (if relevant) –[X]% [e.g., "Sitecore + Optimizely + Umbraco ecosystem represents ~[X]% of CMS market share — Wappalyzer data 2025"]
Capability constraints –[X]% [e.g., "Current team capacity limits to [N] concurrent engagements"]

SAM = TAM × (1 – cumulative reduction). State clearly.

Step 4 — SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market

SOM = what the client (or RBA) can realistically capture from SAM within 3–5 years.

Year 1 SOM:

  • Start from current pipeline or known win rate if available
  • Apply a realistic capture rate: for most B2B professional services, 1–5% of SAM in Year 1 is credible; state the assumption and its basis
  • Cross-check: does the implied revenue number require more headcount or delivery capacity than exists? If so, capacity is the binding constraint — state it

Year 3–5 SOM:

  • Apply compound annual growth at a stated rate (use sector CAGR from analyst sources as a ceiling; apply a discount for execution risk)
  • Produce a range (conservative / base / optimistic) with the assumption difference for each scenario
Year Conservative Base Optimistic
Year 1
Year 3
Year 5

Step 5 — Model summary

Produce the standard TAM/SAM/SOM summary table:

Metric Value Method Key source(s)
TAM [$ currency year] Top-down / Bottom-up converged [Sources]
SAM [$ currency year] TAM × filters [Filter basis]
SOM (Year 1, base) [$ currency year] [X]% capture of SAM [Assumption basis]
SOM (Year 3, base) [$ currency year] Projected at [X]% CAGR [CAGR source]

Step 6 — Assumptions register

List every assumption used in the model. For each:

  • Assumption statement
  • Basis (cited source, internal knowledge, or explicit estimate)
  • Sensitivity (high / medium / low — how much does the conclusion change if this assumption is wrong?)

Flag the top two high-sensitivity assumptions explicitly. These are the numbers the audience will challenge first.

Step 7 — Self-check before returning

  • Every source is named with date — no floating "industry reports suggest"
  • Top-down and bottom-up methods both completed; convergence gap stated
  • SAM filters each have an explicit percentage reduction and a stated basis
  • SOM is clearly labeled as a projection with scenario assumptions
  • Figures are in the stated currency and year — no mixing of years or currencies
  • Capacity constraints are mentioned if SOM implies delivery requirements beyond current scale

Return the model as markdown tables plus a narrative summary. Offer to produce a --output slides-notes version if the user needs deck-ready content.

Reference file

  • reference.md — Source quality guide, firmographic estimation approaches, CAGR and market share data sources, SOM benchmarks by sector
Technical details
Plugin
market-research-agent
Author
Dakota Smith
Skill name
market-sizing
Maturity
experimental
Security review
No security review
Owners
  • strategy
Argument hint
<market-or-vertical> [--client <company>] [--geo global|na|uk|eu|apac|<country>] [--segment b2b|b2c|b2b2c|enterprise|smb] [--output model|narrative|slides-notes]
Allowed tools
  • Read
  • Write
  • WebFetch(domain:www.statista.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.gartner.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.forrester.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.idc.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:hginsights.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.ibisworld.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.grandviewresearch.com)
  • WebFetch(domain:www.mordorintelligence.com)
Source
plugins/market-research-agent/skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md

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